[The approaching midterms of 2026 will decide whether the Trump administration can successfully navigate the last two years of his time in office. If the Republicans hold and expand their footprint in the House of Representatives—and perhaps pick up a Senate seat—they will be well positioned to inflict a strategic defeat on the Democrats in the 2028 general elections, landing an electoral blow that could hobble the progressive Left nationally for a decade. The Democrats are down, but they are far from out of the game in 2025. Triumphalism will deliver the GOP bitter dividends if it doesn’t produce the tangible results that voters now demand. With that in mind, I pulled this dispatch to my colleagues and friends from more than a decade ago, when the 2014 midterms were just 48-hours away, when I went on record with my sense of how that tight election would play out in key Senate races and why. I’m pleased to report that I called every race correctly. Not too shabby…]
From: Mark Cromer
To: David.Cogan; Sam.Anson; Charles.Rappleye
Cc: ajwmaher; clamichno; marymoore; brianbrandt; brian; rpaliwal; vargasmusic
Sent: Sun, Nov 2, 2014 1:51 pm
Subject: I See Red: Cromer’s Senate Race Card
Gentlemen (and Mary),
As pollsters and pundits shovel dirt on the Democratic caucus in the United States Senate; Majority Leader Harry Reid, DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and other down-the-masthead Demos continue their manic cycling of projecting sheer and total doom if the GOP picks up six Senate seats—or God forbid more—in Tuesday’s elections, all while predicting with a wild-eyed, drooling giggle that they will in fact rise from the grave, not dead and prematurely buried, to haunt the Republicans by robbing them of a watershed victory at the ballot box.
While Reid continues to show signs of advancing dementia—declaring “without any equivocation” that the U.S. border with Mexico was “totally secure”—Wasserman-Shultz has demonstrated some signs of detectable brain activity, arguing that the Democrats ground game to get out the vote (legal or otherwise) would again carry the day. The problem, of course, was she doesn’t seem to have completely convinced herself of the likelihood of that scenario and comes across more as going through the motions and joining the chorus of her fellow jackasses whistling past the political burial grounds.
In a striking sign of the undercurrent of desperation that has seized the Democrats, the party has launched an unvarnished, stridently racial appeal to blacks in key districts in states from North Carolina to Louisiana and Arkansas; a Willie Horton-in-reverse barrage narrow-casted in black neighborhoods and in black media claiming a Republican capture of the Senate would effectively result in cross-burnings and Klan lynchings throughout the country as Obama is impeached, tried, convicted and then Tasered and dragged from the White House in handcuffs after the police dogs chewed on him for a spell. So desperately overt has the left’s race-baiting campaign of the past few weeks been that The New York Times finally had to acknowledge it with a front-page story last week, correctly fearing it might blow up in their face by prompting increased Anglo voting, which never bodes well for the Democrats.
That said, the Republicans shouldn’t be too pleased with their prospects just yet. Even a wave election that sees sweeping GOP gains in the upper-house of Congress and a fortified majority in the lower one will only reflect an overwhelming rejection of the failed policies of an inept President who appears increasingly detached from the reality of everyday Americans. Stunned that government and the nation’s health could be worse after eight years of George W. Bush, six long years of the country’s first affirmative-action presidency has again set the stage not for an embrace of Wall Street’s working girls in the GOP, but a sharp rebuke of Obama & Co.
With that in mind, I project the following results on Tuesday:
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R). He’s broken outside the margin of error and even an elevated black turnout is unlikely to turn it around for incumbent Mark Pryor.
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R). Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu will not achieve a 50%+ knockout to avoid a second race in December, she’s just trying to survive a few more weeks and hope for some event to develop to save her seat. The question isn’t whether Cassidy will win, but when he’ll win.
Georgia: David Perdue (R). Michelle Nunn has managed to make this race an unexpected nail-biter, largely because her dad Sam Nunn’s reputation as a Southern Democrat populist is deeply rooted in this Old Confederate bastion, just as Howell Heflin’s was in Alabama or the Long dynasty in Louisiana. But in an amazing display of just how toxic Obama is in the state, Nunn has had to effectively denounce the President and promise voters to confront him in order to even be in the game. And Perdue has still kept a small lead in the polls.
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R). It’s already over and has been since Democratic challenger Alison Grimes was reduced to refusing to say whether she voted for President Obama, effectively ‘taking the Fifth’ over whether she had supported Obama. McConnell’s margin may reach double digits.
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R). What should have been a Republican cakewalk has become a too-close-to-call race in Bleeding Kansas, where a Democratic Stepford Wife named Greg Orman has run an opaque campaign of faux independence and somewhat sinister, animatronic replies when reporters are actually able to find him. Orman’s ranking in Kansas is perhaps the most dire symptom of just how badly damaged the Republican brand is and the grim tidings its future holds. Roberts is a thoroughly lackluster candidate who’s have difficulty inspiring an undertaker despite his advancing years, but I’ll wager that the GOP will carry the state based on tight margins and that enough voters will cast their ballots for the devil they know.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R). Incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan was considered endangered even before the disastrous rollout of Obamacare, but she has managed to consistently hold a narrow lead over Tillis for virtually the entire campaign, largely by truing to break with Obama and as a result of Libertarian Sean Haugh—who appears and sounds like a drunken mad scientist—being able to poll at nearly 5%, effectively robbing Tillis of a pool of voters in the way Nader drained critical ballots away from Gore in 2000. I’m calling this for Tillis based on a steady narrowing of Hagan’s lead to statistically irrelevant margins in recent days, which means that Tillis has ‘Big Mo’ going into Tuesday and I also am speculating that the overtly racialist play for black votes in North Carolina will not only drive more white voters to the polls, but will flip enough undecided Anglo ballots to Tillis.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D). Republican challenger Scott Brown could well pull this one out, as Shaheen’s lead is statistically irrelevant within the margin of error. But I suspect like Kansas, she is likely to benefit from enough voters casting a ballot of familiarity. However, this is New Hampshire, notorious for its upsets, and if Brown scores a victory here early Tuesday, it will signal a red tide that will be deadly for the Democrats.
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R). This is the state that should have Reid shaking in his boots, as it is one of the only states in play that boasts enough of Latino votes to conceivably make a difference in a very tight race. However, Gardner has managed to pull ahead in virtually every poll and based on Democratic operatives with knowledge of inside tracking poll data, it sounds as if even the Democrats are expecting to lose the seat.
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R). Reid has said a loss in Iowa means the battle for the Senate is over and Mitch McConnell will be replacing him as majority leader. He’s right. Ernst will carry Iowa and Reid will soon be out of a leadership position (if the scope of the Democratic defeat is wide enough, Reid is also likely to be replaced as minority leader by his own party). She is running ahead in every poll now, albeit with margins ranging from 1% to 7%, but she has the wind at her back and if she loses, it will be a Democratic comeback headline.
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R). While Alaska has demonstrated its historic ability to elect politically disparate Senators such as Democrat Mike Gavel and Republican Ted Stevens, the state is reliably Republican in national elections and Obama has turned this mid-term into a plebiscite on his policies. Big Mistake. Sullivan leads in virtually all the polls and Democrat incumbent Mark Begich would need the wondrous magic of Sarah Palin’s breasts to turn it around. I’m just sayin’.
If the GOP holds every state it is expected to and picks up the states I believe it is going to win, Wednesday morning will look like a 10-state rout and solid five-seat majority in the Senate, with the Republicans holding 55 seats. While not a 60-seat Armageddon scenario for the Demos, it will amount to a historic loss and set the stage for with detente with a neutered White House or a Kamkazi approach by Obama—namely mass immigration reform via executive fiat—that could doom the Democrats in 2016.
That said, the Republican Party is terminally ill, and running the board on Tuesday will not save it. With its leadership hopeless lost to the corporate crack it hooks for on Wall Street, these three-hole sluts for multinational corporations will continue to press for open borders and mass immigration to reshape America as a Third World country brimming with cheap labor and vast pools of wealth hoarded by an elite that uses age-old patronage to steer the masses. A Republican candidate in Maryland recently remarked that its time for conservative nationalists in the GOP to fight again like Reagan did in 1968 and 1976 before rolling across the country in an electoral hurricane in the fall of 1980.
But the America of 1980 (and most of us were there) no longer exists on the scale it once did, with whites eroding from more than 90% of the population in 1970 to less than 70% of it today. The mass immigration from Third World countries as envisioned by Ted Kennedy in 1965 is paying its dividend; the bond is maturing. California and New York—which Reagan carried decisively and even Bush Sr. prevailed in California—are forever lost for the Republicans. And road back to the White House now for the GOP rests solely on preserving and turning out in greater numbers the white working class in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana and keeping Florida, Colorado and Nevada in play. Unfortunately, leadership of the Republicans are hellbent on a suicide ride into the global economy that calls for America to be a market, not a nation. A sea of consumers standing in line for the next gadget and punch-drunk on the latest game.
It will take a few more elections and the very real prospect of armed insurrection in various regions of the nation, but the dissolution of the United States of America from a sovereign nation-state into the world’s Dollar Store is on the horizon.
Signing off from my bunker, I mean bungalow, in Claremont.
~ Cromer
